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2018 Transit Trends from Around the Globe: Northern Europe

Jan 08, 2018
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Transit Trends

The end of 2017 approached at the pace of a high-speed train, leaving individuals and organizations involved with people transport in a variety of states: some have been run over (metaphorically), others have kept up to speed, and then there are those who manage to outpace the rest.

Looking back over the year, one operator that I think hit a few bumps on the road was the transport technology company Uber. After an initial success that seemed unstoppable, several countries have begun to question their way of operating.

Another interesting development is that of autonomous vehicles. This technology – very much at the start of its journey, but quickly picking up speed – hasn’t suffered the kinds of bumps encountered by Uber. Indeed, given the number of autonomous buses being successfully tested in different European regions, this is an extremely positive development with a bright future in people transport.

But which other trends can we expect in the near future? What should public transport look out for, and how can we all prepare? We asked different experts to look into the future for their 2018 trends.

Cities Will Demand Faster, More Reliable, and Sustainable Transportation

“The biggest challenges in transportation in the coming years will be to provide fast, reliable, and sustainable transportation for people and goods in the cities. To do this, we need to solve the congestion problems, completely rethink the way transportation networks operate, and ensure that all modes of transportation are collaborating. The idea of the physical internet may be part of reaching the goal. In the physical internet, you don’t consider point-to-point transportation, but all modes of transportation are collaborating to move people or goods to their end destination. To reach this goal, we will need new tools for designing a network, for assisting the routing, and for sharing the benefits in a fair way. We should also rethink the way space and resources are used in cities. The same resource may be used for many different purposes at different times of the day. When offices close down, their parking lanes can be used as hubs for transportation, and public transportation can support delivery of goods when people sleep. We will need efficient systems to coordinate all modes of transportation, so they collaborate in solving the challenges of the future.”

“Demographic changes and urbanization generate a considerable challenge but also strong potential for public transport, considering mass transit is the most efficient way (economically and environmentally) to ensure the mobility of the passengers. The traditional public transport key success factors (capacity, speed, price, and transparency) combined with the recent and ongoing technological development (IoT, autonomous mobility, etc.) offer an adequate response to these challenges. However, there is a strong need for political leadership and change of institutions to counterbalance the megatrend. Do we need to guarantee mobility outside of the urban areas? Does the public sector need to step in with new mobility offers if the market fails to establish mobility for people living in the less densely populated areas? Do we need to expand the concept of public service obligation and thus the borderline between private and public transport? Can a civil society become an active and reliable part of the public transport offering? Do the public sector need to dissolve internal divisions to come up with even better solutions? My answer to all of the above is yes.”

Mobility as a Service (MaaS) Becomes Bigger – with the Right Support

“MaaS is a strong trend at the moment and has the potential of playing an even more important role for the public transport offerings in the years to come. We see it already at the big car manufacturers who have included MaaS and the sharing economy in their development. And when calculating which big cities attract the largest number of new businesses, the winners are those who offer the most flexible and efficient modes of transport. The question is whether the MaaS trend will expand in 2018 or later. This depends to a great extent on the political support. For MaaS to reach its full potential, we need to decide that the sharing economy and public transport is the way to go. This means that we need to support it financially and rethink city space.”

"The increase in on-demand transport services like car sharing, ride sharing, bus to go, and the development in autonomous mini-buses can solve the last mile problems to/from transit hubs. A flexible door to door service can bring public transport to the next level in overcoming this barrier. Another view on the last mile issue is related to localization of new business districts. More and more companies value being located in a dense urban environment. However, office prices in city centers are increasing and we might see more of these “urban companies” moving to the near suburbs. In the suburb, the existing retail is challenged by the increasing success of e-commerce and shops closing down. These trends can be embraced by building up new attractive and innovative urban environments at transit hubs that will support public transport."

Operators will be Disrupting, Not Disrupted

“To transport operators, disruptions are no longer just about fallen trees preventing a train from running on the rails or forcing a bus to take another route. Disruptions today is a major challenge for operators to survive in an increasingly competitive market. Being “good enough” is not enough anymore; you need to do much better tomorrow than you do today. To achieve this goal, operators invest in the latest achievements in big data and intelligent technologies, whether these take the form of autonomous buses or advanced computerized algorithms helping to optimize duty and vehicle planning in ways the human brain would never be able to process. They think ahead of their competitors and provide solutions and services that the passengers have not even dreamt about, as it has become clear to the operators that future success is not only about avoiding disruptions – it’s about being the disruptor.” 

Where to Go from Here

Based on what we have heard, there seems to be a common consensus that the future of public transport depends on market mechanisms and the ability to exploit technological innovations, but also on political initiatives. People demand mobility – which means an entire journey, including the first and last miles. It’s the job of the public transport industry to meet their needs. MaaS is seen as a solution, but the speed at which a “true” MaaS offering becomes a reality is highly dependent on political support.

So the big question is: Can transport operators influence political decisions and urban planning? Are they better off focusing all their time and energy on strengthening our cores business? Or should they think ahead, be innovative and disrupt the entire market – or at least their nearest competitors?

Which approach will your agency take? 

 

Disclaimer: Please note that the quotes in this blog post only reflect the contributor’s views and opinions. Quotes do not necessarily reflect the blog author’s nor Trapeze’s views and opinions. 


 
Stine Munk-Rechnitzer is the Content Marketing Manager at Trapeze Group Northern Europe. As a consultant for seven years at an agency specializing in B2B marketing and communication, she has created content for a great number of tech companies, mainly within IT. She has a Master of Arts in French and Rhetoric from Aarhus University in Denmark.
 
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